Biden says, 'I can do this job,' as betting markets put chance of re-election at new low

By Victor Reklaitis

Democratic incumbent says his debate skills have worsened but he can do the job of president

While President Joe Biden offered an upbeat speech Friday in the wake of his widely panned debate performance, his chances of winning this year's White House race appear to have tumbled.

The 81-year-old Democratic president now has a 19% chance of being re-elected in November, according to an average of betting markets provided by RealClearPolitics.

As shown in the chart above, that's down from 36% Wednesday and is the lowest level so far in RCP's data, which goes back to January 2023.

Biden, for his part, said he plans to win in North Carolina in November's election as he spoke at a campaign event in Raleigh, though he did address his performance in Thursday night's debate against presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.

"I don't debate as well as I used to, but I know what I do know," he said in his speech. "I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done. I know, like millions of Americans know, when you get knocked down you get back up."

Biden also said: "I give you my word as a Biden I would not be running again if I didn't believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job."

Biden's critics Thursday night included former Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, who said this on MSNBC: "He had one thing he had to accomplish, and that was reassure America that he was up to the job at his age, and he failed at that."

Trump's chance of winning this November's election has risen to 55%, up from 52% on Wednesday and a new high, according to the betting markets tracked by RCP.

Bettors have turned more upbeat on the prospects of prominent Democrats who might become their party's 2024 presidential nominee instead of Biden, even as some analysts say it's unlikely the incumbent will end up getting replaced.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is now at 11%, up from 4% on Wednesday, while Vice President Kamala Harris is at 5%, up from 2% two days ago.

Related: After Biden's debate showing, markets confront chance of a new candidate

And see: 5 stock-market takeaways as Biden sees 'incredible pressure' to step aside after debate

Plus: Good news on PCE inflation may not be enough to help Biden after that debate

To be sure, betting markets got the 2022 midterm elections wrong and can be poor predictors for several reasons. The clientele for political gambling tends to be right-leaning and male, and betting markets can get caught up in narratives, one expert in political gambling and prediction markets told MarketWatch after the midterms.

Analysts at 22V Research said the way that they're "approaching the post-debate move higher in Trump election odds, which presumably increases the odds of a Republican sweep, is to monitor the impact on UST yields." UST refers to U.S. Treasury bonds, while a Republican sweep means the GOP takes control of the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

"We have witnessed some violent reactions in bond markets in the U.K. and currently in France on the potential for policy that increases deficits at a time when inflation is elevated," the analysts said in a note. "Interestingly, the move in 10yr UST yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y has been muted post the debate. For now."

Related: French stocks and bonds slide after Macron calls election

-Victor Reklaitis

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-28-24 1416ET

Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.