Live Nation: Breakup Sought by Department of Justice Likely Wouldn’t Have a Major Impact on Our FVE

The US Department of Justice, joined by most US states, filed a widely anticipated lawsuit against Live Nation, alleging that ownership of Ticketmaster combined with the firm’s dominance in concert promotion suppresses competition. The lawsuit seeks to break up the company. We expect a resolution will take many years and have many twists and turns along the way. The myriad ways the case could proceed and the relatively small negative impact we’d expect from worst-case scenarios result in us maintaining our $105 fair value estimate and reiterating our High Uncertainty Rating.