Apple 'Mac killers' might be lurking in those new AI-powered Windows PCs

By Mike Feibus

Qualcomm is strongly positioned, while AMD and Intel may be vulnerable

The Copilot+ laptops are proving to be Snapdragon's breakout performers - at just the right time for Qualcomm.

Windows PC makers, Microsoft, retailers and especially Qualcomm are betting big that their new Copilot+ laptops are Mac killers. From what I've seen so far, they might be on to something.

The Windows ecosystem sees its new Copilot+ laptops as the first serious counterpunch to the MacBook Air, Apple's (AAPL) superthin-laptop series that has been snagging market share with its zippy performance and long battery life since it was redesigned around the tech giant's own M-series chips in late 2020.

The new laptops from Acer (TW:2353), Asus (TW:2357), Dell (DELL), HP (HPQ), Lenovo (HK:992), Microsoft (MSFT) and Samsung (KR:005930) are a potential threat to more than just Apple's MacBook Air business. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC), the PC market's primary suppliers, may be vulnerable as well.

That's because all 22 Copilot+ systems now available are built around the Snapdragon X Series from wireless pioneer Qualcomm (QCOM) - not x86 processors from Intel or AMD. The X Series is the only laptop processor line thus far to meet Microsoft's artificial-intelligence-acceleration requirements for Copilot+.

It will be months before systems with Ryzen AI 300 and Lunar Lake - the first processors from AMD and Intel, respectively, with the requisite AI-specific horsepower - are available and certified by Microsoft for Copilot+.

Early indications are that the initial wave of Snapdragon-based laptops are selling well. I've been evaluating two of them - the Asus Vivobook S 15 for nearly two weeks and Lenovo's Yoga Slim 7X for the past few days - so I have a pretty good idea as to why.

Generative AI now and later

It is now Year Three of generative AI, a period characterized by a migration of the capability from the cloud and into smartphones, laptops and other personal electronics. On-device generative-AI processing promises to make the technology faster, more personal and more private. And new AI accelerators - called neural processing units, or NPUs - are cropping up to handle the load with negligible impact on battery life.

As NPUs become available, Big Tech giants are angling to become the face of on-device generative AI. They are scrambling to serve up the groundbreaking technology ahead of the others.

The smartphone - as Alphabet (GOOGL) and Samsung have proved, and Apple belatedly has embraced - is emerging as the vehicle for next-gen in-the-moment consumer convenience. Already there are features like turbocharged photo search and editing, real-time translation and a very cool feature called Circle to Search.

The business end of generative AI, meanwhile, is taking shape on the laptop. It will help supercharge everyday tasks, like illustrating a proposal, finding pearls of insight from all your notes and adding live captions to meetings.

That may help explain why demand for on-device AI acceleration appears to be developing faster in the commercial segment than for consumers. At least some enterprises are interested in the low-power AI-acceleration capabilities of Snapdragon-based laptops today, so they are ordering some systems to stoke development.

For the moment at least, consumers seem more drawn to the performance and battery life of the new laptops than on-device AI. Word is that retail sales of Copilot+ laptops continued steady throughout the preorder period, even after Microsoft announced that Recall, the marquee feature for Copilot+, would be delayed.

Copilot+: A promising work in progress

Copilot+ is still a work in progress. The big feature, Recall - the always-on assistant that makes itself useful by culling all your digital stuff - is delayed. Another feature called Cocreator, which paints as you sketch, still seems a bit rough.

But a couple of features that are available now give a taste of what efficient AI computing can add to the laptop experience. One is Live Captions. Yes, many apps already offer live captioning. But it's been great to have it running as I pop in and out of meetings on different videoconferencing platforms.

Breakout moment

Qualcomm could have a real winner on its hands. The early ecosystem support and sales success is even more impressive when you consider how far Windows-on-Snapdragon has come since Qualcomm kicked off the program six and a half years ago.

For years, the platform was invisible - which turned out to be just as well, given its poor performance and spotty compatibility. In the fall of 2018, I went to buy an early Windows-on-Snapdragon system at Best Buy, but no one could find one, even though it had been available for about six weeks at that time. Finally, the manager located a system, which turned out to be the first the store had sold. He asked if I'd pose for a picture with him and the laptop.

Now the Copilot+ laptops are proving to be Snapdragon's breakout performers - at just the right time for Qualcomm.

PC makers and retailers alike have been hungry for something new to get behind since the the pandemic-era rush to outfit home offices plateaued three years ago. Qualcomm's lean-and-mean X Series processors - the only ones now capable of powering Microsoft's generative-AI platform - seem like the perfect fit.

As the old adage goes, it is better to be lucky than good. In this case, though, Qualcomm's new Snapdragon X Series might turn out to be both.

Mike Feibus is principal analyst at FeibusTech, an independent market-research firm in Scottsdale, Ariz.

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-Mike Feibus

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06-29-24 0923ET

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