These numbers show that banks' risk from -2-

   JPMorgan Chase & Co.                                                                                                    New York             JPM        $3,503             59%                         1.2%       1.85% 
   Truist Financial Corp.                                                                                                  Charlotte, N.C       TFC          $527             93%                         4.0%       1.66% 
   Valley National Bancorp                                                                                                 Morristown, N.J.     VLY           $61            543%                         5.6%       0.97% 
   Wells Fargo & Co.                                                                                                       San Francisco        WFC        $1,757             81%                         3.5%       1.61% 
   Zions Bancorporation                                                                                                    Salt Lake City       ZION          $87            276%                         3.3%       1.27% 
   Source: Janney Research (FIG Group), FDIC call reports and SEC filings.  KEY adjusted for Medical Office (lower risk). 
   Source: Janney Research (FIG Group), FDIC call reports and SEC filings. KEY adjusted for Medical Office (lower risk).    Ticker   Est. PPNR ex-dividends (2024 to 2026)  Est. NCOs (2024 to 2026)  Est. additional losses under "worse" scenario for office RE  PPNR remaining (shortfall) 
   Bank of America Corp.                                                                                                     BAC                                      7.6%                   (1.60%)                                                       (0.4%)                        5.6% 
   Bank OZK                                                                                                                  OZK                                      9.5%                   (0.81%)                                                       (1.9%)                        6.8% 
   Citizens Financial Group Inc.                                                                                             CFG                                      4.0%                   (1.46%)                                                       (1.2%)                        1.3% 
   Comerica Inc.                                                                                                             CMA                                      4.3%                   (0.72%)                                                       (0.4%)                        3.2% 
   Fifth Third Bancorp                                                                                                       FITB                                     6.7%                   (1.22%)                                                       (0.7%)                        4.7% 
   Huntington Bancshares Inc.                                                                                                HBAN                                     4.8%                   (0.97%)                                                       (0.3%)                        3.4% 
   KeyCorp                                                                                                                   KEY                                      3.4%                   (1.13%)                                                       (0.2%)                        2.0% 
   M&T Bank Corp.                                                                                                            MTB                                      6.5%                   (1.21%)                                                       (1.2%)                        4.1% 
   New York Community Bancorp                                                                                                NYCB                                     1.8%                   (1.11%)                                                       (0.9%)                      (0.2%) 
   PNC Financial Services Group Inc.                                                                                         PNC                                      4.8%                   (1.04%)                                                       (0.6%)                        3.2% 
   Regions Financial                                                                                                          RF                                      6.2%                   (1.43%)                                                       (1.2%)                        3.5% 
   JPMorgan Chase & Co.                                                                                                      JPM                                     13.6%                   (2.04%)                                                       (0.3%)                       11.2% 
   Truist Financial Corp.                                                                                                    TFC                                      4.8%                   (1.85%)                                                       (1.0%)                        2.0% 
   Valley National Bancorp                                                                                                   VLY                                      3.5%                   (0.54%)                                                       (1.4%)                        1.6% 
   Wells Fargo & Co.                                                                                                         WFC                                      7.2%                   (1.56%)                                                       (0.9%)                        4.7% 
   Zions Bancorporation                                                                                                      ZION                                     3.8%                   (0.52%)                                                       (0.8%)                        2.5% 
   Source: Janney Research (FIG Group), FDIC call reports and SEC filings.  KEY adjusted for Medical Office (lower risk). 

Data definitions:

TA is total assets as of March 31.RBC is risk-based capital. This is a regulatory number that includes banks' common equity and loan loss reserves and excludes unrealized losses on available-for-sale securities, among other adjustments.CRE is total commercial-real-estate loans, with office component marked as such.PPNR is pre-provision net revenue, as explained above. On the table these estimates exclude dividends paid on common or preferred shares. The number on the table is estimated PPNR from 2024 through 2026, divided by total loans as of March 31.NCO is net loan charge-offs, less recoveries. In other words, net loan losses. The NCO figure in the second table is estimated NCO to total loans.

According to Janney's estimates, all of these banks will have sufficient PPNR to set aside enough reserves to cover expected loan losses through 2026. All but New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) are expected to have sufficient PPNR to set aside enough reserves to cover additional office-loan losses under Janney's "worse" scenario.

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06-15-24 0617ET

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