September U.S. CPI Report: 0.4% Overall Increase in Inflation, Just Above Expectations

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% in September from year-ago levels—the same as August’s reading, and well below the June 2022 peak of 9.1%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, increased 4.1% in September over the last 12 months after rising 4.3% in August.

The September CPI report was expected to show a 3.6% increase in inflation compared to a year ago, and a 0.3% increase from August, according to FactSet’s consensus estimate. Core CPI was expected to show an annual increase of 4.1% in September and a monthly increase of 0.3%.

The CPI rose 0.4% in September from month-ago levels after falling 0.6% in August. Core CPI increased 0.3%, matching the August increase.

September CPI Report Key Stats

• CPI rose 0.4% for the month after falling 0.6% in August.
• Core CPI increased 0.3% after rising by the same amount in August.
• CPI rose 3.7% year over year after rising by the same amount the prior month.
• Core CPI rose 4.1% from year-ago levels after increasing 4.3% in August.

Food prices rose 0.2% in September after rising 0.2% in August. Food-at-home prices rose 0.1% over the month, while food-away-from-home (restaurant) prices increased 0.4%.

Energy prices were mixed overall for the month after increasing 5.6% the prior month. Utility (piped) gas service prices fell 1.9%, fuel oil prices increased 8.5%, gasoline prices increased 2.1%, and electricity prices increased 1.3%.

In September, shelter prices increased 0.6% after rising 0.3% in August.