Company Reports

We are maintaining our $3/CAD 4 fair value estimate for no-moat Ballard Power Systems following first-quarter results. We view the shares as fairly valued.

We maintain our $3/CAD 4 fair value estimates for no-moat Ballard Power Systems following news of a large European bus order. We view shares as fairly valued.

We lowered our fair value estimate to $3/CAD 4 from $4/CAD 5.50 for no-moat Ballard Power Systems following its fourth-quarter results. The lower valuation is due to moderating our long-term revenue growth and margin assumptions.

Ballard Power Systems has one of the longest histories in the fuel cell industry, with a particular focus on transportation applications.

Clean energy stocks have had a roller-coaster 18 months. Optimism following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022 gave way to rising interest rates in 2023. We highlight three key themes for investors to focus on in 2024: interest rates, U.S. policy, and profitability.

Media reports have picked up on leaked guidance for the hotly contested U.S. green hydrogen tax credit. While the rules have yet to be finalized, the initial reports point to slightly more restrictive guidance than hoped by many industry participants. Shares of hydrogen-exposed equities underperformed on Dec. 5, with the Global X Hydrogen exchange-traded fund down 2.9% versus the S&P 500 decline of 0.1%.

We lower our fair value estimates to $4/CAD 5.50 from $5/CAD 6.50 for no-moat Ballard Power Systems following its third-quarter results. The lower valuation is due to moderating our long-term revenue growth and gross margin assumptions. We view shares as fairly valued.

Ballard Power Systems has one of the longest histories in the fuel cell industry, with a particular focus on transportation applications.

We maintain our $5/CAD 6.50 fair value estimate for no-moat Ballard Power Systems following its second-quarter results. We view shares as fairly valued.

We trim our fair value estimate for no-moat Ballard Power to $5 (CAD 6.50) per share from $6 (CAD 8) following its investor day. The primary drivers of our decreased valuation are a reduction to our long-term gross margin forecast and terminal multiple assumption. We view shares as fairly valued at current prices.

Ballard Power Systems has one of the longest histories in the fuel cell industry, with a particular focus on transportation applications.

We maintain our $6/CAD 8 fair value estimate for no-moat Ballard Power Systems following its first-quarter results. Our estimates are unchanged as we await Ballard’s investor day on June 13. We view shares as undervalued, but continue to see a wide range of long-term outcomes given the early stage of Ballard’s business model. We give Ballard a Morningstar Uncertainty Rating of Very High.

We have lowered our fair value estimate for no-moat Ballard Power Systems to $6/CAD 8 per share from $7.50/CAD 10 following fourth-quarter results. The drivers of our lower valuation are a moderation in our long-term revenue ramp-up and a slight reduction in terminal gross margins. We see the shares as slightly undervalued in light of our Very High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating.

Ballard Power Systems has one of the longest histories in the fuel cell industry, with a particular focus on transportation applications.

We lower our fair value estimate for Ballard Power to $7.50 (CAD 10) per share from $8.50 following its third-quarter results. The primary driver of our lower valuation is a decrease in our terminal multiple to reflect the long-term uncertainty regarding hydrogen market development. We see shares as slightly undervalued in light of our Very High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating.

Ballard has one of the longest histories in the fuel cell industry, with a particular focus on transportation applications.

We raise our fair value estimate for Ballard Power to $8.50 (CAD 11) per share from $7 following its second-quarter results and after incorporating the proposed Inflation Reduction Act into our valuation. The driver of our increased valuation is assumed higher long-term revenue growth thanks to hydrogen incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act. We view shares as fairly valued.

Ballard has one of the longest histories in the fuel cell industry, with a particular focus on transportation applications.

We are initiating coverage of Ballard Power with no moat, a stable moat trend, and a $7 fair value estimate. While Ballard has a first-mover advantage within fuel cells for transportation applications, robust competition gives us pause on it maintaining this advantage. We view shares as fairly valued.

Ballard has one of the longest histories in the fuel cell industry, with a particular focus on transportation applications.