Pembina Earnings: Marketing Again Boosts 2023 Guidance; Trans Mountain Bid Possible in Late 2024

Pembina’s third-quarter results were a bit better than expected, primarily due to stronger marketing contributions. Pembina’s 2023 EBITDA guidance is now a midpoint of CAD 3.8 billion, compared with prior guidance of CAD 3.65 billion. We had expected some marketing upside, as our forecast was CAD 3.7 billion, but we’ve increased our near-term forecast again. Third-quarter marketing EBITDA still fell about 12% from last year’s levels, but results are not as bad as originally feared, due to higher margins on natural gas liquids sales. After updating our model, our CAD 41 per share fair value estimate is unchanged, while our U.S. fair value estimate falls $1 per share to $29 due to updated exchange rates. Our no-moat rating remains unchanged.