China Bank Earnings: Net Interest Margins Stabilize on Lower Funding Cost; CMB Lags in NIM Recovery
We retain fair value estimates for Bank of Communications, or BoCom, at HKD 6.0, China Merchants Bank, or CMB, at HKD 48, China Citic Bank, or Citic, at HKD 5.7, and China Minsheng Bank, or CMBC, at HKD 3.6 per H share. For Bank of Ningbo, or BONB, the FVE is CNY 27 per A share. The banks' interim results aligned with our expectations for net profit growth ranging from flat to low single digits in 2024. H shares of these banks appear undervalued, trading between 0.2 times-0.7 times 2024 book value, with attractive dividend yields of 6.5%-8.5%, except for BONB, with 3% dividend yield in A stock market. Despite weak net interest margin, or NIM, for CMB, we favor it due to its superior return on equity, steady dividends, and upside potential if consumer sentiment in China recovers.
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