China’s Macro Woes May Damp Long-Term Growth of Kuaishou’s E-Commerce Business
We expect Kuaishou Technology to expand its daily active users to 400 million by the end of 2024 and its user growth to be the main barometer of success in the near- to medium term. There is a possibility for users to increase beyond this in the long term, but we do not expect the number to be as high as larger China social media platforms such as WeChat or Douyin, since Kuaishou appeals to and targets mostly rural users in lower-tier cities. Users will dictate advertising revenue growth—which will be the long-term direct revenue driver, and should be at a faster pace than China’s forecast gross domestic product growth of 4%-6% in the near term as we expect digital advertising in China to grow more than 8% per year to 2026.
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