Commodity prices generally fell in the September-ending quarter, except for gold. Concerns about weak China end-user steel demand affected iron ore and other steelmaking commodities, while base metals prices fell on worries over slower economic growth in China and elsewhere.
Fortescue provides strong leverage to the Chinese economy. If growth in steel consumption remains strong, it's also likely iron ore prices and volumes will, too.
Bears
We think that ultimately Chinese fixed-asset investment will slow, and future iron ore volume growth and prices are likely to be much less favorable.
Fortescue is an Australia-based iron ore miner. It has grown from obscurity start of 2008 to become the world's fourth-largest producer. Growth was fueled by debt, now repaid. Expansion from 55 million metric tons in fiscal 2012 to about 190 million metric tons in 2024 means Fortescue supplies around 10% of global seaborne iron ore. Further expansion above 200 million metric tons is likely once its 22 million metric ton Iron Bridge magnetite mine ramps up, likely in 2026 or 2027. However, with longer-term demand likely to decline as China's economy matures, Fortescue's future margins are likely to be below historical averages. More recently, Fortescue diversified into green energy, with ambitions to become a major supplier of green hydrogen and green ammonia. Its efforts are early stage.