Stock Market Outlook: Scarce Opportunities, but Pockets of Value Remain
The financial services sector is the most undervalued, with banks offering particularly attractive opportunities.
The Morningstar Global Markets Index climbed 11% in the first quarter to March 25, recovering nearly all the ground lost in the fourth quarter of 2018. From a bottom-up perspective, global equities are now only slightly undervalued. The median stock across our 1,500-plus coverage now trades 4% below our fair value estimate compared with a 14% discount toward the end of 2018. Not surprisingly, we also see fewer compelling investment opportunities, with the number of 5-star stocks down by half since year-end.
- The growing scarcity of strong buys is particularly evident in technology, following the sector's 16% year-to-date gain. As of March 25, no technology sector stocks carry our 5-star rating.
- Opportunities are comparably abundant in technology's sister sector, communications services. Europe is a particularly attractive hunting ground for value in this sector.
- Financial services ranks among the most undervalued sectors. Valuations are especially attractive in banking. The median bank trades at roughly 15% below our fair value estimate, with discounts generally greater outside the United States.
Opportunities Are Scarcer, but Pockets of Value Remain - Source: Morningstar. Data as of March 25, 2019.
Full Quarter-End Coverage
Communication Services: 5G Wireless Will Prove More Evolutionary Than Revolutionary
Technology: Semiconductors the Most Attractive Tech Subsector
Financial Services: Interest-Rate Expectations Have Pressured Performance
Energy: Stocks, Oil Prices Have Rebounded, but Some Opportunities Remain
Healthcare: Stock-Picking Increasingly Important
Industrials: Attractive Opportunities in Industrial Distributors
Utilities: Valuations Near Peak, but Dividend Yield, Growth Are Tough to Pass Up
Consumer Defensive: Brand Investments Are Key
Consumer Cyclical: Firms Exposed to E-Commerce, China Have Advantage
Basic Materials: Few High-Upside Investment Opportunities
Real Estate: Firms Sensitive to Interest Rates in Short Term, but Less So in Long Term