Breville: Despite a Strong Brand, Shares Screen as Expensive

Shares in Breville are expensive, trading at about a 40% premium to our unchanged AUD 20 fair value estimate. While there are near-term headwinds with weaker consumer spending, the valuation disconnect lies primarily in the outlook for Breville’s longer-term growth. For context, our underlying earnings per share compound annual growth rate forecast of about 11% for the next three years roughly aligns with FactSet consensus estimates.