Spin Master Corp Shs Subord Voting TOY

Spin Master Struggles to Stimulate Organic Sales as Consumers and Retailers Remain Cautious

With more than two decades since its inception, Spin Master has developed and acquired a plethora of well-known brands like Paw Patrol and Hatchimals, amassing 2% share in a fragmented, more than $100 billion global toy industry (Circana). Utilizing a multifaceted plan for growth focusing on innovation in toys and digital games, higher penetration of overseas markets (which composed more than 40% of 2023 sales), the pursuit of strategic acquisitions, and the development of evergreen global entertainment properties, we believe Spin Master has the ability to grow into nascent product and geographies. This, in turn, should help the firm outpace the traditional global toys and games industry, which is forecast to rise globally at 3.8% between 2024 and 2028, per Euromonitor, including acquisitions and venture projects. Further, we posit prior supply chain optimization, with warehouses consolidated and sourcing better diversified, should support solid operating metrics (we forecast a nearly 16% average adjusted operating margin over the next decade). Spin Master is set to generate average free cash flow to the firm of around $265 million over the next decade, facilitating investment in its operations while maintaining the flexibility to strategically add assets to its mix.