Commodity prices generally fell in the September-ending quarter, except for gold. Concerns about weak China end-user steel demand affected iron ore and other steelmaking commodities, while base metals prices fell on worries over slower economic growth in China and elsewhere.
Existing coal producers, particularly those like Whitehaven that produce high-energy, high-quality coal, may benefit from future supply potentially being damped as new coal mines face more difficulties gaining approval.
Bears
The company's return on invested capital is likely to be depressed in the long term.
Whitehaven Coal is a large Australian independent thermal and metallurgical coal miner with mines in the Gunnedah Basin, New South Wales. It also bought Blackwater and Daunia, two coking coal mines in Queensland, from BHP and Mitsubishi in April 2024. In addition, it owns the large Vickery and Winchester South deposits in New South Wales and Queensland, respectively. Coal is railed to ports in Newcastle and Queensland for export to Asian customers. Along with expanded production at Maules Creek and Narrabri, we expect its share of salable coal production to approach 32 million metric tons from fiscal 2029, from about 13 million in fiscal 2023. Initial development of Vickery will see around 1 million metric tons of extra equity production, with potential expansion to 7 million metric tons.