Collins Foods Ltd CKF

Morningstar Rating
A$8.77 +0.17 (1.98%)
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Company Report

Collins Foods: Margin Pressure Dragging Out, but We Still See Recovery on the Horizon

We think the success of the Australian KFC network will prove crucial for Collins Foods. Despite KFC expansion into Europe and the nascent roll out of Taco Bell stores in Australia, we expect Collins' Australian KFC network will continue to drive the vast majority of operating earnings over the next decade. Collins is the largest KFC franchisee in Australia with over 280 restaurants out of a total of around 800 stores in the country. Its long-term earnings growth is mainly dependent on increasing sales, by increasing same store sales and adding to its store network. Collins grows its network through both new builds and acquisitions of existing restaurants from other franchisees. Similar drivers underpin growth of the smaller European business, although we forecast new builds to play a more important role.

Price vs Fair Value

CKF is trading at a 872% premium.
Price
A$8.60
Fair Value
A$19.20
Uncertainty
High
1-Star Price
A$84.29
5-Star Price
A$9.30
Economic Moat
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Capital Allocation
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Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

The KFC brand is relatively underpenetrated in mainland Europe. There is potential for Collins Foods to both grow its existing European operations and to expand into other countries.

Bears

Organic growth potential for the core Australia business, over and above population growth, is capped by the relative maturity of the KFC brand in Australia.

Trading Information

Previous Close Price
A$8.60
Day Range
A$8.708.85
52-Week Range
A$7.4112.55
Bid/Ask
A$8.75 / A$8.80
Market Cap
A$1.03 Bil
Volume/Avg
688,609 / 488,571

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
16.68
Price/Sales
0.68
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
3.26%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
3.26%
Total Yield
3.26%

Company Profile

Collins Foods is an operator of quick service restaurants, or QSRs. It franchises restaurant brands from US-listed Yum Brands, including KFC in Australia, Germany, and the Netherlands, as well as Taco Bell in Australia. Revenue and earnings are largely generated in Australia, where Collins is the largest KFC franchisee, ahead of Restaurant Brands New Zealand.In the Netherlands, Collins has signed a corporate franchise agreement, giving it more control over development and oversight of the Dutch franchisee network.Earnings growth is underpinned by its store network expansion, both new restaurants and acquisitions of existing sites. Competitive pricing is key to maintaining share in the QSR market, and the company has generally increased at or below consumer price index growth.
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Restaurants
Stock Style Box
Small Core
Total Number of Employees
3,471

Competitors

Valuation

Metric
CKF
DMP
YUMC
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
16.6822.1324.29
Price/Book Value
2.375.083.39
Price/Sales
0.681.311.88
Price/Cash Flow
5.7813.0611.58
Price/Earnings
CKF
DMP
YUMC

Financial Strength

Metric
CKF
DMP
YUMC
Quick Ratio
0.460.471.04
Current Ratio
0.550.851.23
Interest Coverage
2.933.86
Quick Ratio
CKF
DMP
YUMC

Profitability

Metric
CKF
DMP
YUMC
Return on Assets (Normalized)
4.31%4.37%7.25%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
14.70%21.25%13.62%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
6.93%6.41%7.78%
Return on Assets
CKF
DMP
YUMC

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