Tesla Shows Significant Cash Flow Improvement

Tesla reported a better-than-expected quarter, but we still think the stock trades on momentum for option value that, if realized, is still many years away.

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Tesla Inc
(TSLA)

We were pleasantly surprised to see dramatic improvement in Tesla’s adjusted free cash flow number, which adds back cash received from collateralized leasing. The adjusted metric improved to a burn of $181.9 million, an improvement from fourth-quarter 2016’s $757.8 million burn and third-quarter 2017’s burn of over $1.3 billion. For the full-year 2017, we calculate a free cash outflow of just under $3 billion compared with a $635 million burn in 2016.

Fourth-quarter 2017 cash flow benefited from good working capital via both inventory and receivable collection, deferring some capital expenditure on the Model 3 sedan to first quarter--actual capital expenditure was $786.7 million compared with guidance of about $1 billion in the third quarter letter--and residential solar panel cash and loan sales (as opposed to leasing) penetration rose to 54% of residential solar compared with 25% in the prior year’s quarter. Vehicle deliveries grew 35% year over year by our calculation to 29,967 and rose 15% from third-quarter 2017. Model 3 deliveries were 1,542, up from 222 in third quarter. Management expects Model 3 production of 5,000 a week by the end of June and targets 10,000 a week after that. Net Model 3 reservations were “stable” in fourth quarter and have grown in 2018 with more foot traffic coming to see the vehicle in select stores.

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About the Author

David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE

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David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE, is a strategist, AM Industrials, for Morningstar*. He covers stocks in the automotive industry, including dealerships, parts manufacturers, and automakers. He has covered the automotive industry since joining Morningstar in 2007. He writes stock reports, ad hoc reports, stock analyst notes, and builds discounted cash flow models for each company covered. He also assesses their economic moat and makes frequent television and print media appearances in local, national, and international news outlets. Key stocks covered include GM, Ford, CarMax, and all six publicly traded franchise auto dealers, such as AutoNation and Penske Automotive Group.

Before joining Morningstar in 2007, Whiston spent four years in PricewaterhouseCoopers’ New York real estate audit practice and one year in its Chicago office working on real estate acquisition due diligence, gaining experience around assessing an asset’s cash flow.

Whiston holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration with a concentration in accounting from the University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business. He also holds a master’s degree in business administration with concentrations in finance, economics, and organizational behavior from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation, and he is a Certified Public Accountant and a Certified Fraud Examiner.

In 2012, he ranked first in the specialty retailers and services industry in The Wall Street Journal’s annual “Best on the Street” analysts survey. He ranked first in the same industry in 2011 .

* Morningstar Research Services LLC (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc

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