Morningstar

Raising Our Moderna FVE to $202; Shares Undervalued

We think Moderna is on its way to building a narrow moat, with a potential fourth vaccine dose and annual COVID-19 booster shots.

Securities In This Article
Moderna Inc
(MRNA)

We're raising our Moderna MRNA fair value estimate to $202 per share from $182 in conjunction with the firm's full-year 2021 financial results, as we have slightly raised our near-term sales assumptions for the firm's COVID-19 vaccines and also included additional mRNA development programs in our model.

Moderna continues to make progress with potential fourth dose and annual COVID-19 booster shots, with an omicron booster currently in a clinical trial and a new bivalent vaccine (containing the original vaccine and the omicron variant vaccine) entering trials. Although it is unclear what combination of vaccines will be needed in the fall of 2022 and beyond, as visibility on future variants remains poor, Moderna management insists that a booster of some kind will be needed this fall, as antibody levels wane, particularly in the face of the omicron variant, with more breakthrough infections expected nine months after a third dose. We continue to model additional booster sales for vulnerable populations (including seniors), and we now include slightly higher prices, as the U.S. market could move to a mix between government contracts and private market sales. More broadly, Moderna now has a total of 25 development candidates in clinical trials, and even if sales dip in 2023-2024 ahead of new launches from the firm's pipeline in the absence of new COVID-19 variants, we're increasingly confident in a long-term sales trajectory from the firm's diversified pipeline.

We think Moderna is on its way to building a narrow moat, and we assign the firm a positive moat trend.

Morningstar Premium Members gain exclusive access to our full analyst reports, including fair value estimates, bull and bear breakdowns, and risk analyses. Not a Premium Member? Get this and other reports immediately when you try Morningstar Premium free for 14 days.

More in Stocks

3 Dividend Stocks for October 2024

These three dividend payers have an average yield of more than 4.5%.
David Harrell

Consumer Defensives: Despite Angst, Thirsty Investors Have Names to Pursue

Estee Lauder, Kraft Heinz, and Dollar General are our top consumer defensive stocks.
Erin Lash, CFA

Industrials: Many Stocks Overvalued After Q3 Outperformance

Our top stocks in this sector are Chart Industries, Wesco, and CNH Industrial.
Brian Bernard, CFA, CPA

About the Author

Karen Andersen, CFA

Strategist
More from Author

Karen Andersen, CFA, is a sector director, AM Healthcare, for Morningstar*. In addition to leading the sector team, she covers biopharma firms in the US and Europe, focusing mostly on large-cap firms with foundations in biologic or gene-based medicines.

Before joining Morningstar in 2005, Andersen received a master’s degree in business administration from the Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University, where she served as senior healthcare analyst for the M.A. Wright Fund and earned the distinction of Jones Scholar. She also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

She ranked first in the biotechnology industry, and had the highest score overall, in The Wall Street Journal’s annual “Best on the Street” analysts survey in 2013, the last year the survey was conducted.

Andersen holds a bachelor’s degree in biochemistry from Rice University, where she graduated magna cum laude. She is also a member of Phi Beta Kappa. She has scientific research experience in academia at both Rice University and the University of Queensland in Australia. She also worked in the healthcare industry, both at genetic testing firm Integrated Genetics (now part of LabCorp) and as a research assistant at Lexicon Genetics (now Lexicon Pharmaceuticals).

* Morningstar Research Services LLC (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc

Sponsor Center