Morningstar

Novo Nordisk: More Positive Semaglutide Trial Outcomes Bolster Double-Digit Ozempic Growth

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Securities In This Article
Novo Nordisk AS Class B
(NOVO B)

Novo Nordisk NOVO B announced that the Flow trial testing semaglutide in patients with Type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease will be stopped early after an independent committee concluded that efficacy reached a high enough bar to warrant the decision. While specific data won’t be available until the first half of 2024, we think this bodes well for the drug’s ability to slow the progression of renal impairment in these patients, including a potential ability to reduce the risk of death from kidney or cardiovascular disease. We expect this further improves the case for patients to take a GLP-1 therapy early in diabetes treatment, which will likely continue to drive strong double-digit growth through at least 2025 for Novo Nordisk drug Ozempic and supports our wide moat rating for the company. However, we’re maintaining our DKK 475/$70 fair value estimate for Novo Nordisk and we think shares are overvalued at recent prices.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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About the Author

Karen Andersen, CFA

Strategist
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Karen Andersen, CFA, is a strategist, AM Healthcare, for Morningstar*. She covers biopharma firms in the US and Europe, focusing mostly on large-cap firms with foundations in biologic or gene-based medicines.

Before joining Morningstar in 2005, Andersen received a master’s degree in business administration from the Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University, where she served as senior healthcare analyst for the M.A. Wright Fund and earned the distinction of Jones Scholar. She also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

She ranked first in the biotechnology industry, and had the highest score overall, in The Wall Street Journal’s annual “Best on the Street” analysts survey in 2013, the last year the survey was conducted.

Andersen holds a bachelor’s degree in biochemistry from Rice University, where she graduated magna cum laude. She is also a member of Phi Beta Kappa. She has scientific research experience in academia at both Rice University and the University of Queensland in Australia. She also worked in the healthcare industry, both at genetic testing firm Integrated Genetics (now part of LabCorp) and as a research assistant at Lexicon Genetics (now Lexicon Pharmaceuticals).

* Morningstar Research Services LLC (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc

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