Ford: Quarterly U.S. Sales Growth All From Trucks and Vans
During the week of July 3, automakers have reported June or second-quarter sales. Wards has June sales up 19.9% year over year and the month’s seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate at 15.68 million, up from 13.05 million in June 2022. J.D. Power said on June 23 that the month’s incentives were tracking to rise 95.9% from June 2022, albeit off a low base of $918 per vehicle. With J.D. Power putting incentives as a percentage of average transaction price at only 3.7%, we don’t see sales reliant on discounting. Also, the most expensive trim packages continue to be in demand. We expect third-quarter demand to remain healthy amid continued pandemic and chip shortage recovery.
Ford F reported second-quarter sales on July 6 that rose 9.9% versus 17.5% for the industry. We attribute the underperformance to declines from Mustang as well as from certain crossovers and SUVs such as Explorer, Bronco Sport, Bronco, Mustang Mach-E, and the discontinued EcoSport. The new Escape did well, rising 28.7%. The full-size Expedition and Navigator SUVs rose 52.4% and 20.1%, respectively, while the F-150 Lightning electric vehicle more than doubled deliveries to 4,466. We expect continued growth in Ford’s all-electric offerings from Lightning as well as Mach-E now that the latter’s Mexican plant has been retooled to increase production. The retooling is already helping; Mach-E’s June sales rose 110%, far outpacing its 21.1% quarterly decline. Ford’s press release heavily emphasized its pickup truck outperformance versus GM’s full-size and midsize trucks, but we calculate the 3,605-unit beat was due to the Maverick compact pickup, a segment GM does not compete in. F-Series volume rose 34%, with the Lightning 2.1% of F-Series volume. Half of Lightning buyers are new to the Ford brand, and Lightning volume rose 4.1% from the first quarter. Lincoln sales fell 15.2% but the Corsair and Nautilus crossovers’ June sales far outpaced their overall quarterly growth once inventory improved.
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