Carrefour’s Positive Momentum Continues in Q4 With a Strong Close to the Year
Retailer reported stellar results with group like-for-like sales up 10.9% (11.3% in the third quarter).
Carrefour CA reported stellar fourth-quarter 2022 results with group like-for-like sales up 10.9% (11.3% in the third quarter). Within this, France reported 5.6% like-for-like growth in the fourth quarter, supported by resilient like-for-like growth across formats. Hypermarkets were up 3.7%, supermarkets up 5.9%, while trends for convenience stores continued to be strong, growing by 10.7% on a like-for-like basis. This is another notable performance by Carrefour France, especially considering the promising market share gains recorded during the quarter in value (0.2%) and volume (0.3%). In France, Carrefour has come a long way and recent trends in the region confirm that execution has yielded tangible results in a key market (France) and channel (hypermarkets) for the group. Brazil was robust (11.1% like-for-like growth) with market share gains and volume expansion. Europe’s like-for-like growth was 6.2% with all countries contributing to positive growth (Belgium was up 3.4% in an “extremely competitive market”). EBIT showed an improvement of 8.3% at EUR 2,377 million versus EUR 2,415 million in our model with group margins stable year on year. Notably, net free cash flow was EUR 1,262 million (versus guidance of over EUR 1 billion), with the company announcing a new EUR 800 million buyback program during 2023 (after EUR 750 million and EUR 700 million in 2022 and 2021 respectively), which we applaud. Guidance for 2023 was light on details, with Carrefour expecting growth in EBITDA, recurring operating Income, and net free cash flow in line with our estimates. We don’t expect to materially change our EUR 18.40 fair value estimate for Carrefour. At current levels, shares trade in 3-star territory.
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