Best Idea Update: Allianz Beats On. Shares Fairly Valued

Best Idea Allianz ALIZY has reported solid full-year results, yet we believe investors are focusing on the 2% miss in earnings per share versus consensus. Allianz has reported a 12% rise in group operating profit to EUR 14.2 billion. That is slightly ahead of our full-year estimate of EUR 13.6 billion, by EUR 600 million—a little lighter than the EUR 700 million we predicted around Allianz’s third-quarter results. Despite investors not digesting well the results, we still find these to be good numbers. Allianz’s solvency capital has improved by 2 percentage points to 201% since the end of the third quarter. Management has announced the proposal of a EUR 11.4 dividend that is the full year and final—this is a 5.6% rise. Roughly half of the EUR 1 billion share repurchase plan initiated Nov. 21, 2022, has been brought back as of Feb. 3, 2023.

We maintain our EUR 230 per share fair value estimate and our rating of no economic moat.