Nvidia's stock gets a downgrade as AMD, TSMC shares are deemed top plays

By Emily Bary

New Street sees reason for 'a more prudent view' on Nvidia's stock

Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly bullish when it comes to Nvidia Corp.'s stock, but the pack of analysts standing on the sidelines got a tiny bit larger on Friday.

New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu downgraded Nvidia shares (NVDA) to neutral from buy in an industry report that he dubbed a "health check" on artificial-intelligence stocks. Now eight of the 62 analysts tracked by FactSet have neutral-equivalent stances on Nvidia's stock.

In Ferragu's view, "upside will only materialize in a bull case, in which the outlook beyond 2025 increases materially, and we do not have the conviction on this scenario playing out yet."

He notes that consensus projections imply 35% growth in revenue from graphics processing units in 2025.

See also: Nvidia is most-owned chip stock in active funds - but another is moving up fast

"The quality of the franchise is nevertheless intact, and we would be buyers again, but only on prolonged weakness," Ferragu wrote.

Shares of Nvidia were down 1.3% in morning trading Friday. The stock was down 6.5% from its all-time high of $135.58 achieved on June 18. Ferragu has a $135 target price on the shares.

"Although Nvidia remain the strongest franchise for AI data centers, near-term expectations and valuation justify a more prudent view on the stock," Ferragu wrote.

Opinion: What Nvidia investors can learn from the roaring 1920s and the radio bubble

He remains bullish on the other AI names in his coverage universe, with particular preference for shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) (TW:2330) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) Both stocks boast "strong upside in both in our base and high scenarios," Ferragu said.

He values AMD's stock based on a 35x multiple of his $10 estimate for 2027 earnings per share. That translates to a $345 target price for 2026, while Ferragu's 12-month target is $235 - 38% above current levels.

As for Taiwan Semiconductor, he has a NT$1,470 price target for 2026 and a NT$1,200 price target for 12 months from now. The 12-month target implies about 19% upside from recent levels.

Ferragu noted that he sees "expectations for AI semis aligned with capacity planning in the supply chain" and also "aligned with the expansion of demand beyond hyperscalers" for the first time since early 2023, when he predicted that AI hardware spending would inflect.

"This doesn't mean the end of the trend - we still see very strong growth ahead and upside potential in most names we cover," Ferragu wrote. "It nevertheless means investors must now be more careful and selective in their exposure to the trend."

More from MarketWatch: Here's why AMD's stock was just dubbed a top pick

-Emily Bary

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-05-24 1150ET

Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.