Moderna says new-generation COVID vaccine more effective than Spikevax in adults 18 and over

By Ciara Linnane

A consistent trend was seen in a subset of adults age 65 and older

Moderna Inc. said Thursday a Phase 3 trial of its next-generation COVID-19 vaccine met its main goal and showed higher efficacy in adults age 18 and older compared with its original vaccine, Spikevax.

A consistent trend was seen in a subset of adults age 65 and older, the company said in a statement.

The trial involved about 11,400 patients age 12 and older, half of whom were given mRNA-1283, the new vaccine, and half of whom were given Spikevax.

"Today's vaccine efficacy data are consistent with the previously announced immunogenicity results from the study, which showed that mRNA-1283 had higher neutralizing antibody responses against both Omicron BA.4/5 and ancestral SARS-CoV-2 than mRNA-1273, with the highest geometric mean titer ratios observed in adults and in the subset of participants aged 65 years and older," Moderna (MRNA) said.

The new vaccine was found to have a similar safety profile to Spikevax.

Moderna is planning to present the data at an upcoming conference and to submit it for publication. The company will also engage with regulators on the next steps for the program and application.

The news comes just days after Moderna said its combination flu and COVID vaccine triggered better immune responses than stand-alone shots currently on the market.

Moderna's combined flu and COVID shot includes components of its experimental seasonal-flu vaccine mRNA-1010 and its next-generation COVID vaccine candidate mRNA-128.

Evercore ISI analysts said the combo vaccine is a key product for Moderna, as it holds the potential for great traction, depending on safety and tolerability.

"We are skeptical that MRNA can hit long-term consensus expectations with only individual COVID and flu vaccines, as we don't expect a big rebound in standalone COVID vaccinations, and the flu market is highly competitive," analysts led by Cory Kasimov wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.

Evercore is more upbeat than Wall Street on the outlook for a combination vaccine. The company is expecting a combo vaccine to achieve $4.7 billion in revenue by 2035, compared with a consensus of $1.6 billion.

The analysts have an in-line rating on Moderna's stock with a target-price base case of $120, or about 5% below the current price.

The stock was down 3% Thursday but has gained 37% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 13.7%.

-Ciara Linnane

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06-13-24 1259ET

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