Company Reports

We reaffirm our fair value estimates and economic moat ratings for US utilities as we assess potential partnerships between data centers and nuclear plants.

We are reaffirming our $46 fair value estimate for Vistra after Texas regulators announced that one of Vistra's proposed new-build gas power plants is a finalist to receive a state-backed loan as part of the $5 billion Texas Energy Fund program. We are reaffirming our no-moat and High Uncertainty ratings.

We are reaffirming our fair value estimates for Vistra Energy and NRG Energy as Texas continues to set electricity demand records. We are also reaffirming our no-moat and High Uncertainty Ratings for both companies.

We are reaffirming our $46 fair value estimate for Vistra after a series of positive developments are set to start flowing through earnings as soon as this summer. We are also reaffirming our no-moat and high uncertainty ratings.

We are raising our fair value estimate for Vistra Energy to $46 per share from $43 after incorporating the the mid-Atlantic region's 2025-26 capacity auction results. We are reaffirming our no-moat rating and High Uncertainty Rating.

Vistra Energy is entering its second phase of life since splitting off as a stand-alone entity in 2016, following the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy. It is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing electrification of the economy and potential electricity demand growth from data centers.

We are reaffirming our $43 per share fair value estimate for Vistra after reviewing regulatory filings from dozens of power producers seeking to tap Texas' $5 billion low-cost loan program for new power generation. We are reaffirming our no-moat rating and High Uncertainty Rating.

Vistra Energy is entering its second phase of life since splitting off as a stand-alone entity in 2016, following the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy.

We plan to raise our $32 per share fair value estimate for Vistra by about 25% to reflect a rally in Texas power markets during the last quarter and additional synergies from the Energy Harbor acquisition that closed in March. This follows our 23% fair value increase in March to reflect Vistra's higher hedged margin value. We are reaffirming our no-moat and High Uncertainty ratings.

We are reaffirming our fair value estimates and economic moat ratings for US utilities after executives at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas on Tuesday forecast an extraordinary jump in electricity demand in the state during the next five years.

Vistra Energy is entering its second phase of life since exiting the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy in 2016.

We plan to raise our $26 fair value estimate for Vistra about 10% after the company closed its $5.7 billion acquisition of Energy Harbor and reported $4.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2023, slightly above our estimate. We are reaffirming our no-moat rating.

We are reaffirming our $26 per share fair value estimate for Vistra following a week of unusually cold weather across the U.S. that should boost the company's first-quarter earnings. We are reaffirming our no-moat and High Uncertainty ratings.

We are reaffirming our $26 per share fair value estimate for Vistra after reviewing the outlook for this winter in the Texas power markets. We are reaffirming our no-moat and High Uncertainty ratings.

We are reaffirming our $26 per share fair value estimate for Vistra after it reported $1.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter, up from $1.0 billion in the third quarter of 2022. Results are on track to meet our full-year estimate. We are reaffirming our no-moat rating.

We are reaffirming our fair value estimates of $37 per share for NRG Energy and $26 per share for Vistra after a month of tight supply/demand conditions on the Texas power grid. We are also reaffirming our no-moat and High Uncertainty Ratings for both companies.

Vistra Energy is entering its second phase of life since exiting the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy in 2016.

We are reaffirming our $24 fair value estimate for Vistra after the company reported $1.0 billion in adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, up 33% from the second quarter of 2022. Results are on track to meet our full-year outlook. We are reaffirming our no-moat rating.

After exiting the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy in 2016, Vistra Energy now is entering its second phase of life. The $5.7 billion acquisition of Energy Harbor and the restructuring announced in March 2023 pave a strategic path to becoming a leading energy player in markets outside of Texas and boosts its clean energy credentials.

We are reaffirming our $24 fair value estimate for Vistra after the company reported $554 million in adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, mostly flat with the first quarter of 2022. Results are on track to meet our full-year outlook. We are reaffirming our no-moat and negative moat trend ratings.