Scor Earnings: Respectable Numbers Albeit Below Consensus

Scor reported a decent result for the first quarter of 2024, in our view, delivering shareholders EUR 196 million in net income. That is tracking well ahead of the EUR 502 million that we forecast for the full year. However, Scor’s first-quarter result was below the EUR 209 million average estimate from company-compiled consensus; we think that is largely because of a negative experience variance in the life and health business. This relates to US mortality and is equal to negative EUR 71 million. It is too early to tell if this is a new trend that needs to be incorporated. There was also some deterioration in the combined ratio quarter on quarter, due to a 2-percentage-point attritional loss ratio deterioration. However, insurance revenue has grown at steady low to mid-single digits, and much of that growth has come from writing more specialty insurance. Liquidity is respectable, and there was solid and clean investment income, albeit a small positive impact from a share option. We maintain our fair value estimate and our no-moat rating.