TSMC Earnings: Shares Cheap as Cautious Capital Spending and Industry Outlook Dent Sentiment

We keep our TWD 950 per share fair value estimate for wide-moat Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (lowered to USD 146 per ADR from USD 151 with an updated exchange rate) as there is no change in the company’s long-term thesis. TSMC’s disciplined approach to capital spending in 2024—and possibly in the next few years—reduces risks of oversupply, and allows more flexibility in cutting-edge research to maintain its leadership. TSMC’s shares remain attractive, as artificial intelligence-related demand continues to pleasantly surprise us, and there is limited downside to sentiment for the automotive and industrial markets.