Just Eat Takeaway Earnings: Conservative Guidance, Light on Growth, but Free Cash Flow a Bright Spot

Just Eat Takeaway reported fiscal 2023 full-year results, in line with the fourth-quarter trading update released on Feb. 5, with gross transaction value, or GTV, down 4% in constant currency. 2023 adjusted EBITDA came in at EUR 324 million, as expected, driven primarily by strong performance in the UK and Ireland segment, compensating lower-than-expected Northern Europe profitability (still the crown jewel of the group at 4.8% adjusted EBITDA margins as a percentage of GMV). Management introduced its outlook for 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be around EUR 450 million, versus EUR 468 million in our model, and constant-currency GTV growth excluding North America in the range of 2% to 6% year on year, versus 7.7% in our model (up 3.5% including North America in our model). Second-half free cash flow was positive versus "approximately breakeven" guidance, and the company expects it to remain comfortably positive, especially given the expectation for higher profitability. The company has completed the EUR 150 million share buyback program initiated in April and is in the process of completing a second buyback program, having repurchased cumulatively 7.3% of issued shares, with a remaining maximum value to be repurchased of EUR 80 million.