Iberdrola Earnings: 2024 Guidance Above Our Expectations; All Eyes on March 21 Capital Market Day

We confirm our EUR 12 fair value estimate after no-moat Iberdrola released 2023 results in line with the latest guidance and set 2024 guidance above our expectations. The firm intends to pay a EUR 0.55 dividend per share on 2023 results, 11% above last year and implying a 5% yield. It will hold a capital market day on March 21 where it will update and roll over its financial targets set in November 2022. Some downward adjustment is likely after the failure to acquire PNM Resources and the fall in wholesale power prices, although Iberdrola's sensitivity to the latter is well below most other European diversified utilities. Shares are in 3-star territory. We see more upside in peers Enel or Engie.