Tabcorp Earnings: Wagering Downturn Sharper Than Expected, but Some Positive Signs

Australian wagering volume is still coming off the boil after spiking during the pandemic. Tabcorp’s first-half fiscal 2024 EBIT fell 32% on the previous corresponding period, with operating deleverage magnifying the 5% slide in revenue. Wagering has historically proved resilient through the economic cycle, but this slowdown is shaping up to be more severe than originally anticipated. Accordingly, we lower our fiscal 2024 revenue forecast by 5% to AUD 2.3 billion, which brings down our underlying EBIT forecast 9% to AUD 105 million, a 30% fall from fiscal 2023.