Angola Departs OPEC in Blow to Group Unity

Angola announced that it will leave OPEC in what we think is more of a blow to the group’s unity than a material impact on the overall oil markets. The timing is not ideal, as OPEC+ is struggling to defend oil prices. Angola’s recent production level of about 1.2 million barrels per day is only about 2% of the total output of OPEC+. The imminent addition of Brazil (3.8 million bbl/d of oil production), while not subject to a quota, helps offset this loss. We had suggested in our Nov. 30 note that Angola's departure was a possibility, since the country had immediately said it would produce above the 1.11 million bbl/d quota set for it at the last OPEC meeting.