EOG Earnings: Firm Exceeds Production Guidance and Raises Full-Year Outlook; Raising FVE to $132

Narrow-moat EOG delivered production of 998 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in its third quarter, up 8.5% year over year and 3% sequentially. The firm exceeded the high end of its guidance (issued last quarter) by 1% and raised its outlook for fiscal 2023 to 982 mboe/d at the midpoint (versus 978 mboe/d previously). This places EOG firmly on track to conclude fiscal 2023 on solid footing, and we expect further improvements in 2024 as declining producer activity, rising domestic demand, and incremental LNG export capacity facilitate more favorable natural gas pricing. We’re raising our fair value estimate to $132 from $121 following the results, implying shares trade at a slight discount at the time of writing.