Herc Holdings Inc

HRI: XNYS (USA)

Morningstar Rating for Stocks	Fair Value	Economic Moat	Capital Allocation
	$226.76	Mscrnqp	Pkyccqn

Herc Sets New Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Margin Targets at Its Investor Day

Dawit Woldemariam

Nov 3, 2023

We raised our fair value estimate by 6% to $152 (from $143 previously), following Herc's recent investor day. Key changes to our cash flow model included upward adjustment to rental revenue and adjusted EBITDA from 2024-26. On an organic basis, Herc believes its rental revenue compound annual growth rate will land between 10%-14% from 2024-26, assuming outsize growth compared with the rental market. In order to outgrow the rental market, Herc will need to grow its fleet, expand further into specialty fleet, and penetrate urban markets further.

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