Kogan.com Ltd

KGN: XASX (AUS)

Morningstar Rating for Stocks	Fair Value	Economic Moat	Capital Allocation
	A$94.90	Jbty	Jzfnfhcxnn

Kogan: Margin Expansion Likely Once Economy Improves

Johannes Faul

Oct 26, 2023

We maintain our fair value estimate on no-moat Kogan at AUD 10.70 per share. Kogan’s first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of AUD 8 million broadly tracks our unchanged AUD 40 million fiscal 2024 adjusted EBITDA forecast. This implies a seasonally strong December quarter and trading in the second half in line with the September quarter. However, our investment thesis hinges on sales growth to accelerate beyond fiscal 2024. From fiscal 2025 we forecast Kogan’s Australian gross sales to increase at an average rate of 7% over the next decade.

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