Singapore Airlines: Hits 80% of Prepandemic Capacity, Ongoing Stable Recovery Fully Priced In

We think no-moat Singapore Airlines, or SIA, has reached a stable recovery stage with its fiscal fourth-quarter (ending March) group passenger capacity reaching 80% of its prepandemic capacity. This roughly meets management's guidance, and is marginally below the 81.7% we had assumed. We are a touch disappointed that the opening of China has seen a slightly slower impact on passenger capacity in March, but it does not change our expectation for SIA to hit prepandemic operating levels over the next 15 months. Passenger load factors continued to exceed our expectations and hint at strong yields. Our earnings estimates and fair value estimate of SGD 5.30 are unchanged ahead of the release of its fiscal 2023 results on May 17.