A Few Speedbumps but Long-Term Forecast Intact; We Maintain Our $315 FVE on Equifax

Equifax finished the year with a healthy fourth quarter. Revenue of $1.20 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.52 topped the FactSet consensus by 1% and 2%, respectively. While the firm’s 2023 revenue outlook of $5.28 billion-$5.38 billion beat the consensus estimate of $5.24 billion, the firm’s adjusted EPS outlook of $7.05-$7.35 missed the consensus estimate of $7.53. While shares are trading modestly down on the subdued earnings outlook, we believe that many of the growth drivers, particularly in workforce solutions, are intact, and we will maintain our $315 fair value estimate on wide-moat Equifax’s shares. We’d also remind investors that Equifax’s guidance has tended to err on the conservative side. We expect revenue to grow on average at about 9% over the next five years as we believe the firm’s fastest growing workforce solutions segment will grow faster and longer than the market expects.