Alstom Maintains Guidance; Shares Remain Cheap

Narrow-moat Alstom reported first-half fiscal 2023 results in line with expectations. Order intake of EUR 10.1 billion declined by 1% organically, while sales grew by 5% on an organic basis. Adjusted EBIT increased by 18% driven by a 40-basis-point margin expansion to 4.9% as a result of synergy realization and mix shift, which was offset by inflation. We maintain our EUR 38 fair value estimate, which is predicated on the lower end of management’s medium-term guidance range. Shares appear attractive should these targets be met without the need for a capital raise.