The Slowdown Starts To Show in Q3, but Maersk Still Powering Under Its Own Steam

Shipping giant Maersk released third-quarter results and was effusive about the uplift in revenue and profits from this time last year. However, the only question on investors’ minds is: what is the trajectory of revenue? Having previously guided to flat container demand for 2022, the company has now lowered this estimate to negative 3% at the midpoint, with our concern being that this trend could continue to worsen. The company maintained full-year guidance around EBITDA and cash flow, as many clients are still locked into contracts based on higher freight rates. While we may tweak our estimates on the back of this update, this will not change our view on the stock, which is currently in 5-star territory with more than 70% upside to our DKK 26,500 fair value estimate.