Ionis Shares Remain Undervalued Following Q2 as Late-Stage Pipeline Advances and Expands

We’re maintaining our $62 fair value estimate for Ionis following second-quarter results (reported earlier in the month) that were as expected and strong progress with the firm’s advancing clinical-stage pipeline. Recent positive phase 3 data for eplontersen in TTR amyloidosis with polyneuropathy as well as several positive phase 2 studies among Ionis’ partnered and wholly owned programs are encouraging, but we continue to see key pivotal data catalysts in 2023-25, led by hypertriglyceridemia drug olezarsen in 2023-24 and hereditary angioedema drug donidalorsen in 2024, followed by eplontersen (cardiomyopathy) and pelacarsen (heart disease) in 2025. In the meantime, we expect additional midstage data to reveal the depth of the Ionis pipeline and allow the firm to continue to move more programs to phase 3. We think Ionis’ antisense oligonucleotide technology supports a narrow moat, and we continue to see the shares as undervalued despite recent stock price appreciation tied to Alnylam’s encouraging results for its own TTR amyloidosis drug patisiran in the broader cardiomyopathy patient group.