Transferring Coverage of Treasury Wine Estates; FVE Increased to AUD 11.50

We raise our fair value estimate for shares in Treasury Wines to AUD 11.50, from AUD 11.00 previously, following a transition in covering analyst. The increase to our fair value estimate is due in equal parts to an increase in our near-term earnings forecast, and time value of money. We raise our fiscal 2021 underlying EBIT forecast to AUD 505 million, from AUD 493 million previously, in line with the firm's guidance range of AUD 495 million to AUD 515 million provided at the 2021 investor day as the company flagged it is performing better than expected. While there was little detail on the recent performance uplift, we expect some second-half recovery in the Americas division, particularly, as vaccines in the U.S. lead to venues gradually reopening. Our Standard capital allocation and high fair value uncertainty ratings remain intact.