Record Demand for Flu Shots Boosts CSL’s 1H but Plasma Collections Remain Challenged

The pandemic has driven record demand for narrow-moat CSL’s flu shots, boosting first half NPAT 44% to USD 1.8 billion. However, reduced plasma collections remain a headwind with CSL reaffirming its fiscal 2021 NPAT guidance of USD 2,170 million–USD 2,265 million. CSL is currently rationing immunoglobulin orders to existing customers and higher expenses are expected in the second half as R&D projects resume. While sales volumes are constrained near-term, we think the current headwinds are likely to be temporary as product demand is largely driven by chronic indications and CSL is on track to open 29 new collection centres in fiscal 2021. We leave our overall estimates broadly unchanged but decrease our fair value estimate by 4% to AUD 244 mostly due to the weaker USD.