We Expect Bapcor’s Trade Business to Continue to Capture Market Share

We expect Bapcor's strong earnings growth to persist as the competitively advantaged trade business capitalises on favourable industry dynamics. We forecast the firm continuing to capture market share in the fragmented trade business as it rolls out stores. We also project same-store sales growth of around 4% per year and growing private-label penetration to more than offset near-term headwinds, leading to a five-year EPS CAGR of 13%.